Nassim Nicholas Taleb, described in the Sunday Times colour supplement this weekend (1st June 2008) as 'now the hottest thinker in the world' suggests that seeking diversity in our activities and relationships, by, for example, going to cocktail parties, can 'maximise the serendipity around you' to produce positive outcomes for creative 'Black Swan' thinking.
Taleb obviously doesn't go to the sort of social gatherings that I attend. Down at the tennis club or in the pubs or clubs where I play my music, moving the topic of conversation onto anything more complex than the plight of the England football team or the number of immigrants that are taking our jobs (usually described as excessive) endangers me being ignored completely - or mugged.
What strikes me most is that this is not a recent phenomena. My interest in discussing theoretical earth changing possibilities has been constant throughout my life and so has the disbelief most people express when I try to raise these issues.
At the dinner table last Christmas, I was told off by my wife in no uncertain terms that I was being 'inappropriate' for wanting to debate bird flu.
When I raised the subject of the Mars landing and the search for extra-terrestrial life at my tennis club yesterday, they didn't even know that the expedition was taking place and almost immediately continued talking about football and Andy Murray's prospects at Wimbledon.
Taleb makes one other suggestion to enhance serendipity which is to live in a town where, presumably, there are more cocktail parties to choose from.
Common sense suggests he must be right with this observation. However, when I was at London University in the late 1960s, parties were about chatting up the girls. Discussing reversals of the polarity of the earth's magnetic field or the consequences on human thinking when extra-terrestrial life is discovered (even if only microbial) only led to raised eyebrows ( I did try, honest).
Last May, Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It looks like an interesting book and has hit the best selling lists around the world. Good for him. I bet he gets invited to lots of interesting parties.
Sadly, the chances of me being able to talk about it with anybody in my social circles is about as likely as a 'Black Swan' event about which he talks so interestingly and persuasively.
So I lift my lonely esoteric glass to the blogosphere and say 'Cheers!' At least I can rant away to you lot - and thank you for listening - but it is not the same as the real world rant with fellow bohemians that I really crave.
(Which explains why the picture above is not of swans, black or white, but instead is of ducks!)
Bye for now
Rob
(Rob Hopcott - online author and seeker after dreams of utopia)
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Serendipity may be the secret to creative 'Black Swan' thinking but, sadly, not in my social gatherings
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3 comments:
Rob,
thanks for the heads up on the Sunday Times article about Nassim Nicholas Taleb. that's serendipity #1.
serendipity #2. you made a good point when it comes to one's physical social circle. i emphatize with you because my social circle is like that too. but our difference
serendipity #3. you have found my blog and i have found yours. and thanks for your comment ;)
my main point? keep on flowing on your blog and the rest will follow ;)
take care and see you around the blogosphere.
~C
Rob,in some narratives, as I just recently observed, ugly ducklings can turn into swans, and white ones at that.
But I know what you mean. A friend posted yesterday's Sunday Times magazine through the door today, I think by way of saying: "you're not as mad as I thought you were this past year since you did that interview". But who knows?
Tim, I've found people thinking one is mad is an occupational danger of working on the Internet and the years go by without me giving them much cause to have a different opinion.
However, Taleb says that the best results are often obtained by tinkering so who knows?
I think it was Edison who said that 'Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up'.
However, as Taleb would say, beneficial Black Swans are not often found amongst the opinions in Mediocristan :-)
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